Thursday, April 10, 2014

The City Is Dying

The ironic geography of dying cities at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Demographic decline.

Subject Article: "Population of rural America continues to fall."

Other Links: 1. "Peak Urbanization."
2. "The Era of Dying Places: Everyone Is Starved for Talent, but Migration Is a Thing of the Past."
3. "Urbanization As Opportunity."
4. "Los Angeles Is Beginning to Look a Lot Like Pittsburgh."
5. "Which Poor Neighborhoods Experienced Income Growth in Recent Decades?"
6. "The Case for More Babies."

Postscript: For example, Los Angeles is dying:

But the most worrisome blow by far is a scathing verdict on Los Angeles’s civic health that was delivered in a one-two punch — the second on Wednesday — by a committee of lawyers, developers, labor leaders and former elected officials who make up something of the Old Guard here. The Los Angeles 2020 Commission presented a catalog of failings that it said were a unique burden to the city: widespread poverty and job stagnation, huge municipal pension obligations, a struggling port and tourism industry and paralyzing traffic that would not be eased even with a continuing multibillion-dollar mass transit initiative.

Their conclusions amounted to an indictment of a city and its culture, a place that the commission said was brimming with talent and resources but was nonetheless falling behind other major cities across the globe.

“Los Angeles is barely treading water, while the rest of the world is moving forward,” the commission said. “We risk falling further behind in adapting to the realities of the 21st century and becoming a city in decline.”

It was a good run.

Wednesday, April 09, 2014

Peak Urbanization

The city is dying at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Demographic decline.

Subject Article: "Austin or Bust: America's Biggest Cities Lose People to the Urban B-List."

Other Links: 1. "Bright Flight From Silicon Valley."
2. "The End Of Geography."
3. "End Of Urban Hierarchy."
4. "Rust Belt Geographic Arbitrage: Buffalo."
5. "After years of brain drain, young people are moving back to Buffalo."
6. "Mesofact Migration."
7. "Website of Samuel Arbesman."
8. "The World Is Spiky: Globalization has changed the economic playing field, but hasn't leveled it."
9. "Why the Rent Is Too Damn High."
10. "People Develop, Not Places."

Postscript: To presage the next post, a teaser:

In developed countries, the urbanization project is basically complete. The remaining urban growth will play out almost entirely in developing countries. In 2010, the urban population in the regions that the United Nations classifies as less developed stood at 2.6 billion. In 100 years, it is likely to be three times larger. Moreover, as Angel (2012) shows, the historical pattern of urban growth suggests that over this time horizon, urban population density in developing cities could easily fall by half.

Emphasis added. If not for immigration, that would be obvious by now in the United States.

Tuesday, April 08, 2014

Bright Flight From Silicon Valley

Talent outmigration ravaging Silicon Valley at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Ironic talent migration.

Subject Article: "Cities See a 'Bright Flight': Highly Educated Americans Increasingly Move to More Affordable Metro Areas in South, West."

Other Links: 1. "Is Silicon Valley Similar to Detroit?"
2. "Tech-savvy drawn to warm climate and cool image of Barcelona."
3. "Silicon Rust."
4. "In Silicon Valley, a New Investment: Eviction."
5. "Los Angeles Is Beginning to Look a Lot Like Pittsburgh."
6. "Bye-Bye, Baby."

Postscript: Blog fodder for my next post, moving down the urban hierarchy:

As a professional thirtysomething who has lived in both New York and Los Angeles, I sometimes feel as if everyone I know is hatching plans to flee to somewhere less expensive, less massive, less hectic, and—again for good measure—less expensive. I know people who have moved in recent years from Los Angeles to Charlotte, from Boston to Durham, from New York to Seattle, from the Bay Area to Denver. Thanks to new U.S. Census data, I now know I am not going crazy. The flight to second-tier cities is thriving.

While the big name prognosticators cling foolishly to the past and claim the world is getting spikier, the undercurrents of flat world have finally gone mainstream. Goodbye, Silicon Valley.

Thursday, April 03, 2014

Silicon Rust

The un-tethering of innovation from geography at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Convergence of Innovation Economy.

Subject Article: "Vivek Wadhwa: Location No Longer Determines Success."

Other Links: 1. "Silicon Shore: How Newcastle Quietly Became A Tech Hub."
2. "The New Geography of Jobs."
3. "Talent Is the New Oil: OPEC of Tech."
4. "Cleveland's 'trouble-making' demographer gets a center to plot the region's growth."
5. "Cost-of-living chasm buoying tech firms."
6. "Midnight in the Rust Belt."
7. "Creating Reagan's image / S.F. ad man Riney helped secure him a second term."

Postscript: To put a bird on Silicon Valley decline, Financial Times story about the H-1B visa rush:

Last year, that allotment went in the first few days after applications opened. This year, immigration attorneys and company executives say, the race will be as tough, if not tougher, as rising tech valuations have fuelled demand for coders.

That is pushing some companies to think more strategically than before about immigration, said John Bautista, a partner with Orrick, a law firm in Silicon Valley.

In the past few months, he says, some companies with US-only operations have started asking whether they could open a new office abroad in order to recruit people and then bring them into the US on a type of visa allocated to existing employees for internal transfers.

“Before [corporate boards said], ‘We’ve got someone we want to hire, what’s the best way to bring him over?’”, said Mr Bautista. “Now it’s, ‘We have a hiring problem, let’s use the immigration laws to come up with an overall strategy to bring teams of people onboard.’”

Silicon Valley has a hiring problem. It no longer corners the market on tech talent.

Tuesday, April 01, 2014

Happy H-1B Visa Day

Facebook is dying at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: War for talent.

Subject Article: "More than 100 Chicago tech execs sign letter urging immigration reform: State's GOP delegation told of need for foreign engineers, scientists."

Other Links: 1."Offshore firms took 50% of H-1B visas in 2013: Government data shows who is really using the visas."
2."The STEM Talent Shortage Debate."
3."Talent Is the New Oil: OPEC of Tech."
4."The Price of Panic."
5."Tech Talent Recruiting Geography."

Postscript: I could go back and forth forever about the relationship between the skills gap and immigration policy. I'm in favor of dramatically increasing the supply of foreign born labor in the United States. Migration is economic development. I'm not writing about the war for talent from a policy perspective.  I'm trying to figure out if the Innovation Economy has peaked and begun converging (i.e. geographically diffusing). The primary point of contention concerns labor costs. When an economy is diverging (i.e. geographically concentrating in a few places), employers can afford dramatic increases in wages. When wages become an overriding concern, businesses should seek out geographic arbitrage opportunities. To date, tech companies have done everything but change address. Today, April Fool's Day, is a day of reckoning.